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Is this the end of the road for America ? By Ambrose Evans-Pilchard, International Business Editor Published: 8:52PM BST 15 Jul 2010 for UK-Telegraph C/P The euro rocketed to a two-month high of $1.29 and sterling jumped two cents to almost $1.54 after the Fed confessed that the US economy may not recover for five or six years. Far from winding down emergency stimulus, the bank may need a fresh blast of bond purchases or quantitative easing. Usually the dollar serves as a safe haven whenever the world takes fright, and there was plenty of sobering news from China and other quarters on Thursday. Not this time. The US itself has become the problem. "The worm is turning," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. "We're in a world of rotating sovereign crises. The market seems to become obsessed with one idea at a time, then violently swings towards another. People thought the euro would break-up. Now we're moving into a new phase because we're hearing alarm bells of a US double dip." Mr Bloom said a deep change is under way in investor psychology as funds and central banks respond to the blizzard of shocking US data and again focus on the fragility of an economy where public debt is surging towards 100pc of GDP, not helped by the malaise enveloping the Obama White House. "The Europeans have aired their dirty debt in public and taken some measures to address it, whilst the US has not," he said. The Fed minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump. "The Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably," it said. The economy might not regain its "longer-run path" until 2016. "The Fed is throwing in the towel," said Gabriel Stein, of Lombard Street Research. "They are preparing to start QE again. This was predictable because the M3 broad money supply has been contracting for months." The Fed minutes amount to a policy thunderbolt, evidence of how quickly the recovery has lost steam. Just weeks ago the Fed was mapping out withdrawal of stimulus. Goldman Sachs said it expects the euro to rise to $1.35 by the end of the year. The yen will appreciate to ¥83, through the pain barrier for most of Japan's big exporters. The new twist is that SAFE, China's $2.4 trillion fund, has begun buying record amounts of Japanese bonds, a shift in reserve allocation away from the dollar. The signs of a deep and sudden slowdown in the US are becoming ever clearer as the "sugar rush" from the Obama fiscal stimulus wears off and the inventory boost fades. California, Illinois and other states are cutting spending, tightening US fiscal policy by 0.8pc of GDP. Thursday's plunge in the Philadelphia Fed's July index of new manufacturing orders to –4.3 suggests that the economy may have buckled abruptly, as it did in mid-2008. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's ECRI leading indicator has tumbled, reaching –8.3pc last week. This points to a sharp slowdown or recession within three months. While US port data looked buoyant in June, the details were troubling. Outbound traffic from Long Beach fell from 139,000 containers in May to 116,000 in June. Shipments from Los Angeles fell from 161,000 to 155,000. This drop in exports is worsening the US trade deficit, eroding the dollar. The US workforce has shrunk by a 1m over the past two months as discouraged jobless give up the hunt. Retail sales have fallen for the past two months. New homes sales crashed to 300,000 in May after tax credits ran out, the lowest since records began in 1963. Mortgage applications have fallen by 42pc to 13-year low since April. Paul Dales at Capital Economics said the "shadow inventory" of unsold properties has risen to 7.8m. "The double dip in housing has begun," he said. Alcoa, CSX, Intel, and JP Morgan have reported good earnings, but they mostly did so in July 2008 just before their shares collapsed. Such earnings rarely catch turning points and can be a lagging indicator. Profits have been boosted in this cycle by cost-cutting, which is self-defeating for the economy as a whole. The minutes confirm the Fed is split down the middle over QE. Fed watchers say the Board in Washington wants to be ready to launch another round of bond purchases if necessary, pushing the banks balance sheet from $2.4 trillion towards $5 trillion, but hawks at the regional banks are highly sceptical. A study by the San Francisco Fed said the interest rates need to be –4.5pc to stabilise the economy under the Fed's "rule of thumb". Since this is impossible, massive QE needs to make up the difference. Tim Congdon from International Monetary Re End of the road? No.
End of the American Century? Possibly.

is she a true best friend or not? me and my friend have been together for more thn 2 years we were soooo close tht we would talk about anythng she was a part of me and i was a part of her. one day her boy friend said something mean to her i went up to her bf and blasted in his face i was sooooooo damn mean to him for her even though her bf is a friend of mine. at that time i had a bf we were friends and all but it just didnt work out so he broke up wth me " whch i have no regrets over" but the next thing i knw it my bst friend is with him and i do believe she took advantage of the period of time whn we didnt talk during the break up to get closer to him and i didnt knw tht later on another friend came up to me and told me tht they were dating " i was the last person to knw" puttin in mind tht this guy really really hurt me so she told me tht she loved him and all .. i hate her for it and in a way i dont want to b around her but at the same time she is my friend and i have to support her. and what hurts more thn the break up is tht my bst friend did this to me and i sacrificed alot for her i mean i could havve dated the guy she was with but due to respect im not even gonna put tht in mind .. i feel she betrayed me and decieved me and whn i ended our friendship the frst time she blamed me so we wnt bak to our friendship and til now she still blames me as if im doing something wrong.. and the guy was like i was right for him at tht time but she was right for him at this time.... is she a friend or shd i just end this i mean i cant take it anymore i hate it whn she acts as if nthng happnd and whn i try to confront her she says he never loved u in the frst place im really really strting to hate all this i cant keep on pretending everythng is fine and her pretending tht she didnt do anythng wrong :S she is a friend, someone you can shoot the sh*t with but not somone you can really count on to not hurt you or betray you. You can still be friends with her but no like you were before

Bst 2 Blast is from category: Flashlights.